How Startups Are Megaprojects (and Why Less Than 1% Succeed)
When you think of the world’s most ambitious projects — the Olympics, the Sydney Opera House, or California’s high-speed rail — you probably don’t picture venture-backed startups. But you should.
A few weeks ago, Business Insider published a video on How Big Things Get Done, named one of The Economist’s best books of 2023, (not affiliated). The authors studied more than 16,000 megaprojects around the globe — bridges, dams, stadiums, railroads, energy plants, and more. Their conclusion? Fewer than 0.5% were delivered on time, on budget, and with the promised results.
In other words, 99%+ of megaprojects fail in some way.
Sound familiar? That’s startup land.
Venture-backed companies are, in their own way, megaprojects. They aim for massive scale, often pursue something the world has never seen before, and burn staggering amounts of capital along the way. And just like megaprojects, the odds are stacked heavily against them.
So why do so many fail? And more importantly, what can founders and operators learn from the rare 0.5% that succeed?
Lesson 1: Planning and Research Matter
Megaprojects almost always start with good intentions and bold vision. But the Sydney Opera House ended up 1,400% over budget, and California’s high-speed rail project has been massively over cost and remains incomplete.
Why? Because people jumped into building without a robust plan. The authors point out that most megaproject leaders are doing something they’ve never done before, in an environment full of unknowns. Without serious upfront research and scenario planning, things unravel quickly.
Startups fall into the exact same trap. Too often, founders mistake a compelling idea for a plan. But ideas are cheap. Execution is what matters. “Flying the plane while you build it” may sound gritty, but it usually signals that there’s no operational backbone in place.
The best companies I’ve seen don’t just chase an idea — they create a roadmap, anticipate risks, and invest in the systems and people that will support the vision when things get messy.
Lesson 2: Modularity Is the Secret to Scale
The authors note a surprising commonality in the few megaprojects that were runaway successes: they were modular by design.
Take the Empire State Building. Its architect designed every floor to be almost identical to the one below it. That repeatability meant construction could accelerate as the team gained momentum. The project was completed in record time — an anomaly compared to most megaproject disasters.
Or consider solar farms. At first glance, they’re massive, sprawling projects. But they succeed because they’re built from repeatable modules: install one panel, and you’ve basically installed them all.
Startups should think the same way. Operations, systems, and even customer acquisition strategies can be broken down into repeatable, scalable “modules.” When processes compound instead of reinventing themselves every step of the way, growth accelerates.
Too many startups neglect this, defaulting to the chaos of “hustle.” But hustle isn’t scalable. Modularity is.
Lesson 3: Teams and Logistics Are Everything
Megaprojects succeed when the right expertise, leadership, and logistics come together. The Hoover Dam, for example, worked because the team behind it had deep experience in large-scale construction, paired with an organizational design that matched the challenge.
The same applies to startups. A founding team with an idea but no operational depth is like a dam project without engineers. Execution requires more than ambition; it requires matching the right people and processes to the scale of the problem.
Why This Matters for Founders and Investors
As investors, we sometimes romanticize the chaos of startup life. We admire the boldness of “building something the world has never seen.” But the research on megaprojects reminds us that boldness without planning is almost always a recipe for failure.
If fewer than 1% of megaprojects succeed in hitting all three goals (on time, on budget, delivering promised results), then perhaps we should stop pretending startups are different. They are the megaprojects of the business world — fragile, high-risk, and full of unknowns.
The difference is that founders and operators can learn from the 0.5% that got it right.
The Takeaway
So what’s the lesson for startup land?
Do the hard research. Don’t just validate the idea — validate the execution path.
Design for modularity. Find the “Lego blocks” in your business model and replicate them relentlessly.
Invest in operations. Planning, logistics, and the right team aren’t “nice-to-haves.” They’re the foundation of success.
Startups, like megaprojects, don’t fail because people didn’t dream big enough. They fail because people didn’t prepare deeply enough.
In short: operations matter. The difference between failure and being part of the 0.5% is in how you plan, how you build, and how you scale.
So the question is: what’s your startup’s Lego?
